Bear Market Eating Amazon Now
Our bear market is still hungry, and yesterday found its new prey and ripped apart the giant Amazon. It’s down over 12% in trading as I am writing this newsletter. Here at BBT, we traded AAPL and AMD very nicely and I posted my recap in our YouTube channel. Let me know in the comments section if you have any questions.
Global Financial News
Apple Inc. also brought disappointment to investors. Apple predicted that supply constraints amid China’s COVID restrictions would cost $4 billion to $8 billion in revenue during the current quarter, casting gloom over record results. Elon Musk sold about $8 billion worth of Tesla Inc. stock days after reaching a $44 billion deal to buy Twitter Inc. So that explains why Tesla was falling apart this week.
As mentioned, Amazon has dropped. Since it’s a company that is used to growing at 20%, 30%, or even 40% over the last few years, yesterday’s update was something of a shock: Amazon’s e-commerce sales dropped by 3% and the company reported its first loss in 7 years because of its investment in Rivian. Amazon is always of interest to me. Few companies have benefited from the pandemic as much as they have. Their online sales soared and many wondered whether brick and mortar retail stores would ever recover. Well, they apparently have.
In the UK, for example, monthly data on internet sales as a % of total retail is being published — and an interesting trend has developed. After years of gently trending higher, online sales shot to more than 35% of total UK retail sales during the pandemic, which is where many experts expected them to stay, as people adopted new and permanent habits. But in recent months, online sales have pulled back. In fact, if you draw the trend line on the data pre-pandemic, then online sales are not far off from where they might have ended up anyway, had the pandemic never happened in a glorious alternative timeline. The quarterly data in the US shows a similar trend. Maybe we don’t want to buy everything online after all.
I have been trading NVDA a lot these days, mostly successfully but sometimes with trouble. I think NVDA, with an almost $0.5T market cap, is now the new addition to our megacap “always in play” stocks. After the collapse of Netflix, FANG has now changed to MAATMAN.* Welcome NVIDIA, the maker of graphics processing units (GPUs) and other computer hardware. You have quietly grown into America’s 7th most valuable company.
*MAATMAN is Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, and NVIDIA.
Germany won’t block a possible oil embargo by the European Union against Russia, in a shift that could see the country phase in an end to purchases from Russia. Oil is heading for its longest run of monthly gains since early 2018. Brent, the global benchmark for crude, is up 1.3% to around $109 a barrel as of 5:25am ET today. Meanwhile, the US will “strongly support” Sweden and Finland if they decide to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a report by The Washington Post said.
We have tons of new earnings next week. Make sure to check our Trading Terminal for the earnings calendar.
At Bear Bull Traders…
We wrapped up this week nicely with some amazing trading opportunities. Next week, we have a series of important webinars in technology, strategy, and psychology being led by Kyle, Carlos, Ardi, and Dr. Reid. Our Thursday Mentorship sessions will be with John, Thor, and Ed.
All of our programs are for Elite members, so make sure to upgrade your account with us.
At Peak Capital Trading…
As mentioned, our boot camp is sold out, and I am excited to work with our 5th cohort of traders to help them build consistent and powerful TradeBooks. Thanks for quickly signing up for all the spots!
I will be off on Monday for climbing Mt. Wedge in British Columbia and a ski mountaineering traverse in northern Whistler. Wish me luck and send your thoughts to me as it is a very technical ski mountaineering climb and the chance of dying is always high in these terrains.
Thor will be taking over my morning Open session on Monday. I then fly out to Portugal on Thursday, May 6th to attend a 65km (40 mile) trail running race in the Azores Islands along with one week of extra training after that. During my time off, Thor has kindly agreed to take over my Open sessions. The good news is that I am planning to travel at least 1 week per month, which means you are in for the treat of watching Thor trade nicely in the morning with his screen share and live commentary! Enjoy! I am jealous!
To your success,
PS: If you have not already, I urge you to try out our free web-based trading simulator at stocktradingsimulator.com. It’s conveniently available 24/7, whenever you have time to practice honing your trading skills.