What to Expect in 2023
As I wrote not too many days ago, the market is bouncing back, in part in anticipation of tomorrow’s inflation report. Brian, Paras, Jarad, and others did some amazing trading on Amazon and Tesla in the chatroom this morning. You can watch my recap here.
You will see where I had one of the best shorts I have recently executed – an incredible short on Tesla – live in the chatroom! Tesla has become my favorite stock to trade and I cannot imagine not trading it each day. I do feel bad for Elon Musk though, and as you know, I joke about him a lot in the community. Tesla’s stock is way down. Twitter is likely worth less than half of what Elon Musk paid for it. Just how far he will fall is anyone’s guess, but one thing seems clear: the “Chief Twit” and Tesla “Technoking” might never reclaim the title of the world’s richest person.
I posted an article on LinkedIn, and I hope our members will take the time to comment on it and let me know what they think. Please make sure to add me as a connection on LinkedIn so that we can stay in touch together there.
Tomorrow is a big day. If you check the Trading Terminal calendar page, you will see that the latest CPI number will be released on Thursday. Economists expect a drop from 6% to 5.7%. If the number comes up softer, we may see a massive run-up, especially in QQQ and TQQQ, two ETFs that track the Nasdaq-100 index. All eyes are on it!
Last night, for Tuesday Strategy and TradeBook, I presented a very interesting webinar on how to build a TradeBook. If you have not watched it yet, please make sure to check it out here.
I am cautiously optimistic for 2023. We will see a little relief from interest rate hikes this year, meaning that we can be a little less on the defensive regarding financial assets. By all signs, inflation has already peaked — and the Fed’s aggressiveness along with it. But we should all temper our expectations somewhat given that the Fed still has concerns about a labor market that remains too hot.
When it comes to the stock market, there are three elephants in the room that will shape 2023 for us: inflation, the economy,and the Federal Reserve. The combination of a mild recession and high interest rates has me believing that the first half of 2023 will be tough for the stock market but the other half could provide some excellent buying opportunities that could lead to a sustained economic and financial upturn in 2024.
What’s your thoughts? Email me at [email protected] or simply reply to this email.
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To your sucess
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